Superman

I don't know if anyone should pay any attention to polls anymore as they have been wrong in every primary and caucus to date.

But the polls are telling us that Hillary is still ahead in most super Tuesday states. Since the vote is a week from tomorrow, that doesn't give Mr. Obama much time to catch up and pass her. But as I said, the polls have been terribly wrong. With two candidates who are unlike any candidates the country has ever seen, the polls simply don't know how to measure the mood of the voters.

Hillary is the first serious woman candidate, and perhaps more importantly, the first First Lady to run. Voters have mixed feelings. Many who would love to finally see a woman president aren't sure they want the first one to be Hillary. Voters are feeling love and revulsion at the same time: love for who the Clintons once were, and revulsion at what they have become. Many who supported Hillary a week ago have switched their allegience to Obama.

Barack Obama is not only the first African American to have a real shot at the nomination, he is an African American who transcends race. Again, voters aren't sure what to think. Just when they agree with Hillary that he is too inexperienced, they hear him speak and hear not only evidence of experience, but evidence of maturity and wisdom. Barack Obama is not just a candidate, he is a phenomenon, a politician with the potential to be a statesman, a visionary and prophet all rolled into one, and many voters are deciding this is their chance to be on the right side of history, to participate in something that could return the country to greatness. They are increasingly seeing Hillary as the past, Barack as the future.

Ted Kennedy and his niece Caroline Kennedy are right to see the potential greatness in him. He reminds them of the two fallen Kennedys who inspired another generation.

If the polls are right this time, and Obama loses to Hillary, then we all lose with him. We will have missed an opportunity to move in a new direction, towards a place we very much need to go. If Hillary wins the nomination, she may or may not beat the Republican nominee in November. Her negatives are so high, and her momentum so poor, that she is likely to ensure four more years of Republican insanity. If she is victorious and does become the next president, however, things could be just as bad.

On the other hand, a surprise Obama victory on Super Tuesday will not only energize Democrats, but also capture the entire country. Already he is causing Republicans to pay serious attention. An Obama come-from-behind win on Tuesday will show us just how powerful a figure he is. If he defeats the Clintons, when they have had an enormous lead, he will be a superhero, a giant killer who did the impossible, and whose momentum will carry him to the White House in November.

And that's just the beginning.

Lessons from New Hampshire

We are going to learn a lot of lessons from this election season. We've learned a few already:

1. An African American man can win in a white state and have a very strong showing in another white state (if he runs as a Democrat).

2. The polls can be wrong.

3. Women can be a formidable and unpredictable force in an election.

4. People make up their minds at the last minute. (And it's still "a woman's privilege" to change hers.)

5. Evangelicals don't yet rule the country.

6. Individual voters count.

All of these lessons are good news for democracy. All of them remind us what this is all about: the people - not the polls, not the media, not the pundits, not the preachers - choosing a president.

The split vote between Iowa and New Hampshire assures us now that there will not be a media coronation but a real tough primary fight, in which the candidates have to prove their endurance and their ability to the voters. The biggest winners in such an election season are the citizens, who have decided to make up their own minds, unswayed by polls and blowhards like Chris Matthews.

Biggest lesson of all: It ain't over till it's over.