It's just over one month until the Iowa Caucuses, the first chance ordinary citizens - and not journalists and pundits - get to say who they want to be the party nominees for president.
The caucuses are different than primary elections where people simply mark a ballot. In Iowa, people actually get together, discuss, debate, and lobby each other. They talk about electability as well as personal and policy matters and often end up voting for the person that started out being their second choice. This is why the results in Iowa are often such a surprise and why they often change the dynamic of the entire race. People aren't just voting alone; they are talking to each other and thinking things through with other citizens. What a concept!
Currently, Obama leads the Democratic field in the Iowa polls, but just barely. Hillary Clinton is close, as is John Edwards. As we all know, Howard Dean was the favorite in Iowa a month out, but his surprise loss there pretty much ended his campaign.
On the Republican side, Romney's early advertising and digging into his own pockets has him first in polls, but Mike Huckabee is closing in. Giuliani and McCain have not paid much attention to Iowa and so are not high in the polls. I guess they don't want to upset their slick media based campaigns with an appeal to the great unwashed masses. This way, they can simply discount the results in Iowa by saying they never really tried to win.
The way I see things today, I believe Obama might just pull off a big victory in Iowa, which will enable him to come in no lower than second in New Hampshire. Then it will come down to super Tuesday in February, when 22 states will hold primaries.
In fact, I think it just might be possible for Obama to win the nomination and even go on to be the first African American president in the history of the country. I don't say this because of any inside knowledge, but because I think he represents the best candidate in either party on which the American people can pin their hopes and dreams.
Every other candidate in the race is either a well known commodity infused with the negative taint of politics (Clinton, Giuliani, McCain, Edwards, Romney), a second tier candidate who excites some but is way too ideologically bound (Tancredo, Hunter, Kucinich, Paul, Huckabee) or someone who is really running for Vice President or Secretary of State (Dodd, Biden, Richardson).
Obama is someone new with a fresh face and a quick mind. He is psychologically just what the American people need right now. He is nothing like George W. Bush, and for that matter, nothing like Bill Clinton. His intelligence and ability to speak clearly outshine Bush. He seems more sensible and down to earth, and is not nearly as ideological as Bush has proven himself to be. While he shows strength, he doesn't display arrogance, something we have seen too much of with the last president and vice president.
He has charisma, but not like Clinton. He is not nearly as slick, having already made a few mistakes on the campaign trail. But the mistakes only make him more human, more likeable and more trustworthy.
His moving up in the polls is an indication, I believe, that the American people are starting to feel quite comfortable with him. At first, the Democrats gravitated to Clinton, believing she was tough enough to take on any Republican. But the people may be growing weary of her for a variety of reasons, and having second thoughts about voting for her. Like the Iowa caucus voters, Americans are thinking things through and may be deciding that the best solution to the national depression we feel, after seven years of Bush and six years of fear and war, is to turn in a completely different direction to a completely different kind of candidate.
I sense a real change of mood with the American people, and I think that is good for an Obama candidacy. We will have to see, however, if the monied interests and the media will prevent the American people from really knowing their own minds, and influence them to vote not only against their own interests, but against their political instincts.
