Twelve reasons Obama will win in November

I may be premature in this, but I believe Barack Obama will not only win the Democratic nomination, but will become the 44th President of the United States and the first person of color ever to hold that office.

Here's why:

1. McCain is too old. He is already making mistakes on the campaign trail that signal memory problems. On the debate stage, next to John McCain, Barack will look more youthful and sound more wise. The difference will be obvious and will not help McCain.

2. People are tired of the War in Iraq. In a year in which the American people are weary of war, being a war hero is simply not enough to get one elected. It doesn't help that McCain says the American poeople won't mind being in Iraq for 100 years.

3. The Republican brand is on life support. Congressional special elections in Republican districts are all going Democratic, even when the Republicans try to link the Democratic candidates with Obama and Jeremiah Wright.

4. The Baby Boomers' time is over. Young Americans are supporting Obama in large numbers and are convincing their parents and grandparents that they know what they are doing in supporting Obama. Obama offers a refreshing vision of an America no longer looking to the conflicts of the sixties to define itself.

5. McCain offers nothing to soothe the ills of the nation. The economy, gas prices, and health care are three of the biggest concerns of the American people and these are three areas where McCain has no solutions. Obama has or will present comprehensive plans for relief in all three areas, and will make McCain – who must please the conservative base that wants limited federal programs - look out of touch.

6. The smear machine and dog whistle have lost their power. The typical Republican tactic of painting the Democrats as weak on defense, as "defeatocrats" or as appeasers will backfire on them. The American people will remember that they fell for that in 2004 and they will not do it again. And while racist dog whistle code words may be used against him, Obama has the temperament and the strategy to overcome this.

7. "Liberal" is no longer a dirty word. The American people are actually much more liberal than the Republicans think they are, and conservative ideology is both out of fashion and exposed as a fraud. The people want answers and solutions, and they want them from government, not from the unregulated private sector, which has proven to be so corrupt and brought them so much misery.

8. Evangelicals are divided. John McCain will not have enthusiastic support from the evangelical community, both because he is not seen as one of them and because the community is not as united as it once was. Young evangelicals are more open-minded than their parents and grandparents, and some Democratic issues, like the importance of protecting the environment, are very important to them. Wedge issues like abortion and homosexuality will simply not have the power in a year when Bush's war and the Republican economy are weakening our country and hurting the average family.

9. John McCain will be seen as running for Bush's third term. There are too many sound bites and photos of McCain supporting Bush, and too many votes for Bush's policies, to enable him to adequately distance himself from the nation's most unpopular president ever. McCain's reputation as a "maverick" will not hold up. More likely he will be seen as a one time maverick who is now a political opportunist, what the Republicans like to call a "flip-flopper."

10. Barack Obama is more charismatic than John McCain. Not only does he represent a new kind of politics, one that moves beyond the conflicts of the sixties, but he is generating tremendous enthusiasm among his supporters, based partly on his persona. Obama has charisma and is able to win people over once they get to know him. The candidate with the most charisma (eg. Kennedy, Reagan, Clinton) always has an advantage over his opponent.

11. The American people want a leader, not a follower. Obama has set the themes of this campaign, and McCain is now trying to imitate him, just as Hillary tried to do. Obama's early recognition that this is a year in which the American people want change, and his early success in communicating that message, has put McCain in the position of also calling for change, and thus being a follower rather than a leader.

12. Obama has the right temperament. Presidents are expected to be measured in their emotional responses. Hillary Clinton and the Republicans have and will throw just about anything at Obama in order to defeat him. In every instance so far, Barack has remained calm. He shows the right amount of humor in response to some tactics, and indignation in response to others. There are no sound bites, no videotape, and no anecdotes of Obama losing his temper. This is not true of McCain, who is known to lose his temper quite often.

Could we please just end it already?

Oh, please, good people of North Carolina and Indiana, could you please just help end this endless campaign?

I'm tired of thinking about it, writing about it, and having my blood pressure raised over it.

Every primary that doesn't finally determine the winner gives bored Republicans, who have no one to vote for in their own party, a chance to vote mischievously for Hillary.

Everyone knows she can't catch up in any of the metrics she has used to declare she SHOULD be the winner, even if she isn't. She can't catch up in pledged delegates, popular vote, states won, or even enough superdelegates to give her the nomination. Yet the media and especially Republican pundits want this to go on and on for their own job security. So they ramp up the Jeremiah Wright controversy, praise Hillary Clinton for being a fighter, and pretend she could pull off a Clinton miracle.

Well I think the Almighty only gives individuals one big miracle in a lifetime, and the Clintons already were granted one when the Senate didn't vote to convict Bill and throw him out of office. They're not going to get another miracle.

I'll tell you the miracle I want to see and it's one only the Clintons can give us. I want to see the Clintons finally come to their senses and get out of the race. I want to see Hillary go back to New york or Pennsylvania or Washington D.C. or Arkansas or Illinois, or wherever her true "home" is, after claiming them all, and get a good rest. Then I want to see the two of them get back on the campaign trail and work their tails off for Barack Obama.

I want to see them prove they really are loyal to the party.

I want to see them prove they really do care about the country.

I want to see them convince all those blue collar voters who were afraid to vote for Obama that they need to get over their racist tendencies and embrace one of the most brilliant and gifted candidates anyone has ever seen, at least since Bill was on the national stage. I want Bill to tell the country that they can and should elect Obama to be the real first black president.

I want to see them campaign actively in states she won and once said Obama couldn't win, and help him win Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida.

I want to see Hillary denounce this silly gas tax holiday idea and tell voters it was just a pander when she still thought she could win, and Obama was right all along.

I want Bill to go to church every Sunday with Barack and convince everyone that his wife's former opponent is not only NOT a Muslim, but that he is a committed Christian.

I want Hillary to thank all of her supporters and contributers for backing her, and then tell them that Obama will truly change this country for the better and that she will be right there helping him do it.

I want Hillary to say she does not for one second think McCain would make a better commander in chief than Obama. I want her to apologize for her Iraq War vote and give Obama credit for being the only candidate who was right on Iraq.

I want Hillary to prove she really does care about this country, so much that she is willing to concede graciously, throw her support to Obama, and campaign her heart out for him, not just because she is a loyal democrat, but because a President Obama will change this nation in ways unimaginable a few years ago.

The Clintons are continuing to campaign because they want to win, but also because they don't know how to lose. They don't know how to give up, let go, and be gracious. It's actually much harder for some people to let go than it is to hold on. It sometimes takes more strength of character to acknowledge defeat, but that is what they must do now when continuing to fight is so destructive to the overall cause of rescuing the country from the Republicans who have done so much damage.

The Clintons may not be able to win this time, but they still have an enormous amount of power. They can help guarantee an Obama victory in the Fall. That is their patriotic duty, and will go a long way to redeem them in the eyes of many who have come to hate them for the way they have conducted themselves these past few months.

If the Clintons actually do this, if they turn around and campaign sincerely and whole heartedly for Obama, even I might change my mind about them.

What we don't need: a divisive candidate

As of today, polls show Hillary Clinton slightly ahead of Barack Obama among Democratic voters, with Obama gaining ground slowly as voters get to know him, and more closely scrutinize Hillary Clinton, the candidate with more name recognition. It remains to be seen if he can catch up, but Hillary's popularity is puzzling for one reason: she is an extremely divisive figure.

Even her most ardent supporters would have to agree that Hillary Clinton is divisive. In fact, some of her supporters, I believe, take great delight in that. They think she is divisive because she is a fighter, and after eight years of Republican attrocities, they want to line up behind a fighter.

I don't think the candidate herself wants to be divisive. I would imagine that a presidential candidate wants to attract as many voters as possible, so divisiveness is not something she embraces. Even as she has a reputation for being tough, Hillary Clinton is a woman, a wife, a mother, and a human being who believes in helping the less fortunate. So I have to think she has a soft side that secretly wants to be liked, or even loved, as a good and decent person and a candidate whose heart is in the right place. Her semi-tearful moment prior to the New Hampshire primary sent that message quite clearly, even if it isn't clear whether the moment was spontaneous or calculated.

Yet, in spite of what she might desire, Hillary Clinton is and will always be a divisive figure. It is important to acknowledge why this is so, and what it might mean both in the general election, and in an imagined Hillary Clinton presidency.

Hillary Clinton has a history as the wife of a president who was impeached and who, before her husband's Monica Lewinsky moment was acknowledged, claimed that both she and her husband were under siege by a "vast right wing conspiracy." Now many of us felt at the time that there was, and still is, a strong right wing attempt to defeat Democratic politicians, although the use of the word "conspiracy" was not a wise one in that it was an attempt to make her and her husband look like victims, and displayed an unwillingness to acknowledge the reality of their failings.

The Clintons were divisive figures long before Monica, however, in that they came to the White House with an agenda that was never intended to bring their opponents on board. Their arrogant and clumsy overreach in several areas (eg. gays in the military, health care) is partly why the Republicans took the leadership of the Congress in 1994, just two years after Bill Clinton was inaugurated.

Hillary Clinton's divisiveness may have begun during her husband's campaign when she said she wasn't a "Tammy Wynette stand by your man" kind of wife, but that divisiveness blossomed during the Health Care initiative, which was her project. It was then that she earned a reputation as a fighter who did not know how or was unwilling to work with her political opponents to reach her objective of universal health care. As a result, the Congress has been unwilling to return to the question of universal coverage, leaving millions and millions of Americans uninsured for the past fourteen years. That's an enormous price to pay for someone's arrogant and divisive behavior.


Hillary Clinton is divisive for a second reason: because she is such an obvious power hungry politician, and in this election, a consummate divide and conquer one. In Karl Rove fashion, she and her strategists seem willing to cobble together a slim majority by pandering to Hispanics and women and tossing African Americans aside, as they did in North Carolina. So even if she shares a tearful moment with voters, and even as she sounds brilliant on the issues, behind the scenes she is a consummate politician who knows exactly where the Democratic votes are and how to manipulate them in her favor.

One more thing makes Hillary Clinton divisive. She is still married to one of the most divisive figures in recent American politics and, if elected president, will bring him back into the White House. Anyone who doubts the divisiveness of Bill Clinton need only remember his behavior of the past few weeks, using racial innuendo and heavy handed attacks against his wife's opponent. It has even been reported that one of the things that convinced Ted Kennedy not to endorse Hillary was Bill's outrageous behavior.

If the former president's behavior can divide Democrats, how much more can it divide the country in the general election, or if by some miracle Hillary becomes president? In those few weeks after Iowa, Bill Clinton nearly demolished her candidacy with his arrogance and outspokenness. If he can cause that much damage in the campaign, what might he do once he is back in the White House? In a general election, I suspect voters will decide they don't want Bill Clinton's narcissistic ego and unchecked appetites distracting his wife and scuttling her agenda, and so the ultimate risk of a Clinton candidacy is that she would hand the White House to John McCain and the Republicans.

Anyone who thinks a Hillary Clinton general election campaign would not be filled with reminders of her husband's peccadilloes, her willingness to forgive him, and his ultimate impeachment, is living in an alternate universe. The Republicans say they know how to run against Hillary and they are storing up their ammunition, waiting for the fall campaign. I think we should take them at their word.

I can see it now:

Commercials attacking her for her inability to see reality when her husband was having fun in the Oval Office;

Commercials attacking Bill Clinton for being so engaged in the scandal that he took his eye off of Bin Laden;

Commercials pointing to her "experience" in things wives don't want to experience;

Commercials showing the victory party on the White House lawn after impeachment.

It will go on and on. The Republicans have reams of videotape with Hillary and Bill Clinton doing and saying things that will remind voters of things they'd rather forget. It won't be pretty. And when Hillary's "flip-flop" on the war is highlighted, and her past is compared to McCain's war hero past, she won't win.

As we go to vote on Tuesday, we need to ask ourselves, no matter how much we may like a candidate, can he or she win? Hillary Clinton's divisiveness must give us concern.

We also need to determine not only if this is the right person to be president, but if this is the right person for this time? Some may look at the differences between Clinton and Obama and calculate that she has more experience on the national stage, and that is true. But is that enough? After eight years of a tumultuous Clinton presidency, no matter how good the economy may have been, and eight years of a tumultuous Bush presidency, the country is hungry for something new. They're just not yet sure who offers that, which is why the voters are still so uncertain for whom they will vote in just four days.

Hillary and Barack both look like someone new, but aside from her gender, Hillary is not a new kind of candidate, while Barack, race aside, is indeed new. Voting for her would be going back to something that we may remember fondly, as we compare it to the disastrous Bush years, but we forget at our peril how divisive the Clinton years were, and how that divisiveness meant that much of the Clinton agenda failed or had to be seriously modified to please Republicans. We also forget how serious distractions can be in the White House. Without the distraction of Monica and impeachment, for instance, might we have managed to stop Bin Laden? That isn't to leave the Republicans off the hook for their politically calculated actions, or to say Bill Clinton deserved impeachment. But if he had been acting as a president, rather than a philanderer, in the Oval Office, he would never have given them an opening.

Throughout this primary season, one thing has become obvious to me. There are going to be huge problems when the spouse of a former president becomes president herself. No matter how talented or brilliant, that spouse is going to have a problem like no other president. How does the new president both pursue her agenda and still protect the legacy of her spouse? How does her spouse, once the most powerful person on the planet take a back seat? Or does he? And if he doesn't, are we really electing him for a third term? Human nature and marriage being what they are, will there be conflicting loyalties between that to spouse and that to country? And beyond that, when that spouse was impeached because of bad behavior, no matter how trivial it may have seemed to some, how can we trust that the bad behavior will not return? The best way to predict future behavior is to look at past behavior. We should have known that when we voted for Bill Clinton in 1992. Many warned of his sexual misconduct, but we overlooked it, and it ultimately became a terrible distraction.

We can't afford another distracted president. We can't afford another divisive president. We must turn the page on the Clinton and Bush dynasties and inject new blood into the White House.

If, in spite of all the problems with a Clinton candidacy, we choose her as our nominee, I fear we will have lost the best opportunity we have to rescue our country. Hillary Clinton may be a good person and a brilliant politician, but that is not what we need now. Even if she is the right person, she is the right person at the wrong time, which means she is the wrong person.

That is the primary reason I cannot vote for her, no matter how much I admire her intelligence, her ambition and her accomplishments.

Like so many others, I believe we need someone who can inspire, who has a vision, who brings us together, who has no history of scandal or brutal divisiveness. We need someone who will not be distracted by a larger-than-life ex president and spouse. We don't just need a candidate from a different party, we need a different kind of candidate, one who can move us in an entirely new direction.

Hillary Clinton may say she is that candidate. She is not.