The pundits and pollsters are confounded. They seem to get it wrong each time there is a primary or caucus, or a new poll is released. The people keep surprising them by doing things they hadn't expected. Those of us who love real democracy rejoice in this.
The power of women, Latinos and African Americans is one big story this election season. Women and Latinos have kept Hillary in the narrow lead she maintains, while African Americans, as well as white Americans, have kept Obama competitive.
This year, for the first time ever, an African American or a woman could become president. The dominance of white males in the White House could be over.
It appears the American people are no longer willing to put a dolt in the White House. While Rudy Giuliani had his share of supporters, once people caught on to his personal foibles and his lack of understanding of issues other than 9/11 (and he didn't even understand that), they turned away. Likewise, they seem not to trust Romney and Huckabee, opposite personality types who both lack real knowledge of important issues. While McCain may not be a flaming genius, not even in the same league with Clinton and Obama when it comes to smarts, he has been in the Senate a long time and at least knows more than George W. Bush.
The Republican Party appears to be contemplating suicide. The uncomfortable alliance between neocons, theocons and corporate cons (represented by McCain, Huckabee and Romney in that order) is fracturing, with no one candidate appealing to the entire party. Now that McCain, with the help of moderates and independents, appears headed for the nomination, members of the other factions are threatening to stay home or support the Democrat.
In many states the turnout at both caucuses and primary elections is much greater for Democrats than Republicans. This is true even in states that are toss-ups in the general election, or that tend to go in the red column. The solid red South may not be so solid anymore. So regardless of who becomes the Republican nominee, the chances are good that he will be easily defeated. Of course, the Republicans keep saying that even if their nominee doesn't unite the party, Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee, will.
If the contest is between Hillary and John McCain, it will be between two candidates who have a lot of opposition within their own parties. Yet, unlike McCain, Hillary also has a lot of enthusiastic support in the party. No one should underestimate the power of those women "of a certain age" who support her. And even though many in the Democratic Party do not like her and say they will not vote for her, don't bet on it. No Democrat wants a Bush suck-up like McCain in the White House.
If the contest is between McCain and Obama, McCain might as well stay home and nap. The Republican operatives could bring out the racist card and the Muslim smear to counter Obama's popularity, but I'm not at all sure it would work this time. I think the American people have caught on to the disgusting tactics of the right.
And finally, it appears, the evangelical power in the Republican Party is in decline. With Jerry Falwell gone, and Pat Robertson discredited by his support of Giuliani, and with a younger generation of believers chastising their elders for ignoring issues of poverty and global warming, and with the panderers in the Republican Party talking the talk but never walking the walk on abortion and gay marriage, these social issues are no longer the wedge they once were.
So we go forward, the Democratic candidates tied, their supporters pleased with both of them, while the Republicans lament their poor choice of candidates.
It's impossible to predict what will happen in November, but I have a few concerns. While I think Hillary Clinton can beat John McCain, there could be a huge downside to a Clinton victory, especially one that comes because the Republican Party is in such a mess.
If Hillary Clinton becomes president, we will have anointed a second family dynasty. Our failure to inject new blood into the White House, and our willingness to live with our dynasties, will mean there is nothing to stop Jeb Bush from running in four or eight years as the heir apparent to the Bush dynasty. This is even more a possibility because there are no obvious Republican candidates not named Bush waiting in the wings for the next election.
That said, I wish the candidates well. My preference is to break the Clinton-Bush hold on the presidency and choose a leader from a new family as well as a new generation. I want to vote for someone who knew from day one that the Iraq War was a mistake, not someone who voted for it to make her seem commander-in-chiefish, but who now says she wasn't "really" voting for war. I want someone who can show the world that America has changed, that we see clearly the terrible injustice and stupidity and cruelty of our early years when we permitted African Americans to be held in bondage, and that we acknowledge and wish to make amends for the terrible mistake we made five years ago when our leaders violated international law and invaded Iraq.
The only candidate who can do all of that is Barack Obama.
McCain and Clinton both represent the past and the status quo. McCain would continue the war indefinitely, and it is anyone's guess what Hillary would actually do, regardless of what she says. McCain is too old to be president, too much a product of World War II, Korea and Vietnam. McCain is not in touch with the real issues of concern to the American people: health care, the economy, jobs, housing, and education. Clinton and Obama say they would stop the war, but only Obama has been against it since the start, while Hillary is partly responsible for getting us into it. Both Clinton and Obama have a health care plan, but Hillary failed to implement hers fifteen years ago.
I may be of Clinton's generation, one of those "women of a certain age," but my concerns are for my children and grandchildren, and the future of my country. Hillary Clinton may be right on many of the issues, but she and her generation of baby boomers has had their chance to make things right, and they have not. It's time for new ideas and new faces in the White House. The youth of this country know that, which is why they are lining up behind Obama.
And this grandmother agrees with them.
The power of women, Latinos and African Americans is one big story this election season. Women and Latinos have kept Hillary in the narrow lead she maintains, while African Americans, as well as white Americans, have kept Obama competitive.
This year, for the first time ever, an African American or a woman could become president. The dominance of white males in the White House could be over.
It appears the American people are no longer willing to put a dolt in the White House. While Rudy Giuliani had his share of supporters, once people caught on to his personal foibles and his lack of understanding of issues other than 9/11 (and he didn't even understand that), they turned away. Likewise, they seem not to trust Romney and Huckabee, opposite personality types who both lack real knowledge of important issues. While McCain may not be a flaming genius, not even in the same league with Clinton and Obama when it comes to smarts, he has been in the Senate a long time and at least knows more than George W. Bush.
The Republican Party appears to be contemplating suicide. The uncomfortable alliance between neocons, theocons and corporate cons (represented by McCain, Huckabee and Romney in that order) is fracturing, with no one candidate appealing to the entire party. Now that McCain, with the help of moderates and independents, appears headed for the nomination, members of the other factions are threatening to stay home or support the Democrat.
In many states the turnout at both caucuses and primary elections is much greater for Democrats than Republicans. This is true even in states that are toss-ups in the general election, or that tend to go in the red column. The solid red South may not be so solid anymore. So regardless of who becomes the Republican nominee, the chances are good that he will be easily defeated. Of course, the Republicans keep saying that even if their nominee doesn't unite the party, Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee, will.
If the contest is between Hillary and John McCain, it will be between two candidates who have a lot of opposition within their own parties. Yet, unlike McCain, Hillary also has a lot of enthusiastic support in the party. No one should underestimate the power of those women "of a certain age" who support her. And even though many in the Democratic Party do not like her and say they will not vote for her, don't bet on it. No Democrat wants a Bush suck-up like McCain in the White House.
If the contest is between McCain and Obama, McCain might as well stay home and nap. The Republican operatives could bring out the racist card and the Muslim smear to counter Obama's popularity, but I'm not at all sure it would work this time. I think the American people have caught on to the disgusting tactics of the right.
And finally, it appears, the evangelical power in the Republican Party is in decline. With Jerry Falwell gone, and Pat Robertson discredited by his support of Giuliani, and with a younger generation of believers chastising their elders for ignoring issues of poverty and global warming, and with the panderers in the Republican Party talking the talk but never walking the walk on abortion and gay marriage, these social issues are no longer the wedge they once were.
So we go forward, the Democratic candidates tied, their supporters pleased with both of them, while the Republicans lament their poor choice of candidates.
It's impossible to predict what will happen in November, but I have a few concerns. While I think Hillary Clinton can beat John McCain, there could be a huge downside to a Clinton victory, especially one that comes because the Republican Party is in such a mess.
If Hillary Clinton becomes president, we will have anointed a second family dynasty. Our failure to inject new blood into the White House, and our willingness to live with our dynasties, will mean there is nothing to stop Jeb Bush from running in four or eight years as the heir apparent to the Bush dynasty. This is even more a possibility because there are no obvious Republican candidates not named Bush waiting in the wings for the next election.
That said, I wish the candidates well. My preference is to break the Clinton-Bush hold on the presidency and choose a leader from a new family as well as a new generation. I want to vote for someone who knew from day one that the Iraq War was a mistake, not someone who voted for it to make her seem commander-in-chiefish, but who now says she wasn't "really" voting for war. I want someone who can show the world that America has changed, that we see clearly the terrible injustice and stupidity and cruelty of our early years when we permitted African Americans to be held in bondage, and that we acknowledge and wish to make amends for the terrible mistake we made five years ago when our leaders violated international law and invaded Iraq.
The only candidate who can do all of that is Barack Obama.
McCain and Clinton both represent the past and the status quo. McCain would continue the war indefinitely, and it is anyone's guess what Hillary would actually do, regardless of what she says. McCain is too old to be president, too much a product of World War II, Korea and Vietnam. McCain is not in touch with the real issues of concern to the American people: health care, the economy, jobs, housing, and education. Clinton and Obama say they would stop the war, but only Obama has been against it since the start, while Hillary is partly responsible for getting us into it. Both Clinton and Obama have a health care plan, but Hillary failed to implement hers fifteen years ago.
I may be of Clinton's generation, one of those "women of a certain age," but my concerns are for my children and grandchildren, and the future of my country. Hillary Clinton may be right on many of the issues, but she and her generation of baby boomers has had their chance to make things right, and they have not. It's time for new ideas and new faces in the White House. The youth of this country know that, which is why they are lining up behind Obama.
And this grandmother agrees with them.
