I really am amused by how excited the media get by the latest polls.
For instance, the media have spun the narrative for weeks now that with George W. Bush so unpopular, and democratic registrations outnumbering republican registrations, Barack Obama should be up by more than he is (anywhere from four to about eight points depending on the poll). They apparently have forgotten that they told us in the last two elections that the nation was evenly divided. "We're a fifty-fifty nation," they told us after the 2000 election and before the 2004.
Now the narrative has changed. They use polls that say Obama is up by six and say he should be up by more. How he does that in a fifty-fifty nation I'm not sure. If Obama wins by six points in November, we definitely won't be a fifty-fifty nation. They will have to call it a rout, a landslide. Of course, it will be easier to use that characterization after the election when there is nothing to gain from continuing to root for McCain and to mischaracterize the race as "close." Now, they must keep it close to keep the public interested in what otherwise might be a very dull election season, akin to 1996 when Dole's campaign was just sad.
Today, CNN and MSNBC (and I suppose FOX though I would vomit if I forced myself to watch FOX) are responding to the latest Quinnipiac state polls showing McCain has a two point advantage over Obama in Colorado and has pulled closer in Michigan and Minnesota. This, they claim, means the race "is tightening" and Obama's fifty state strategy "is failing."
They fail to point out that this poll doesn't match others and that Colorado is still within the margin of error, which it has always been.
Polls today mean very little, in my opinion. When Obama chooses his running mate, the polls will change, and if he feels he needs to choose Hillary to move the polls, I believe he will. While there would certainly be problems with a Hillary vice presidency (namely the presence of Bill) there is no doubt in my mind that choosing her would lock up the presidency for him.
And there will be a change in polls during and after the convention, and especially when he gives his speech at Mile High Stadium. And there are still several months of McCain gaffes to look forward to.
The polls will be very different in October than they are now, and I am certain the advantage will be Obama's.
