Now that the media has declared victory for Obama in the presidential primary, and large numbers of superdelegates are announcing their support for the Illinois Senator, talk turns to the choice of a vice presidential running mate.
There is a movement underway to pressure Obama into choosing Hillary, to make what some consider an unbeatable ticket, a "dream ticket."
The positives are obvious. Hillary is popular with women and senior citizens, and having her on the ticket might make blue collar voters, who otherwise would reject Obama because he is young, or inexperienced, or African American, change their minds and vote Democratic.
But the negatives are just as obvious. Hillary does not compliment the change message Obama brings and she has said many negative things about her rival that would be difficult to erase. She also insists he cannot win, and some think she even wants him to lose. Furthermore, the baggage Hillary Clinton brings could hurt Obama more than help him. The Republicans are prepared to run against Hillary, and having her on the ticket, even in second place, would give them the opportunity they crave. Finally, even though the American people are wanting a change election, there may be only so much change they can tolerate. It is asking a lot of the people to vote for a non-traditional candidate, a candidate who looks different from any president in the past. To put two non-traditional candidates on the ballot may be asking too much of a stretch from the people.
There is a rumor out in medialand that Michelle Obama has put the kibosh on a Hillary Clinton candidacy and whether or not that is true, it is more true that the real person who would probably sink the chances of Hillary Clinton being on the ticket is Bill Clinton.
Can anyone really imagine what a nightmare it would be for a President Obama to constantly have to contend with Bill Clinton running around the country shooting his mouth off? He has proven himself to be a loose cannon in this campaign, one who says things that are inappropriate and damaging. Why would that change after his wife becomes vice president, especially if he still harbors the belief that his wife should have been president? Obama doesn't need an arrogant former president whispering in the ear of his vice president, and possibly undermining Obama's policies and/or competing for the spotlight.
Besides wanting to choose someone who complements his change message, Obama needs a vice presidential candidate, preferably a Hillary surrogate, who will help him win a big state he needs: Ed Rendell, Ted Strickland, Jim Webb, or Evan Bayh, for instance who could help him win Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, or Indiana. There are other calculations, of course, and ultimately I trust that Obama will pick wisely. I do not think he will nor should choose Hillary Clinton - at least not for the 2008 election.
However, if Obama wins in 2008, has a great four years, which I trust he will, and proves himself to the American people so that his re-election is not in doubt, I think he could change vice presidential candidates and ask Hillary Clinton to run with him in 2012. By then, if she has worked well with him from her position in the Senate, she might not be perceived by Obama supporters as the aggressive, divisive candidate they see now.
It is not without precedent that a president chooses a different vice presidential candidate for his second term. FDR chose a different vice president each term and it seems to have worked out well for him.
With Obama, it would mean choosing a vice presidential candidate who would be willing to only serve one term, someone who had no real aspirations to the presidency, and who would know they would be asked to step aside in 2012. Because for this to help Obama, he would have to make it known to Hillary in this election season that he was planning to do this. This could be the motivation for Hillary to support him enthusiastically in the fall.
But what would be in it for Hillary? Three things. Th first two relate assume the scenario of an Obama victory. The third becomes operative with a possible Obama loss. In this sense, whether Obama wins or loses, Hillary can win.
First, if she became vice president in 2012, with a very popular president, she would be in a great position to run for the presidency in 2016. Yes, she would be 68, but that is still younger than John McCain is now. Second, she would be making history as the first female vice president, and then possibly use that as a springboard to become the first female president. I believe the public might be much more willing to accept a diverse ticket in four years than it is today.
Finally, if she is willing to sit out this election as a vice presidential candidate, but still campaign vigorously for Obama, and Obama loses anyway, she is not part of a losing team and can come back in 2012 to run for the presidency again. (This scenario is not helpful to her, however, if she either doesn't campaign for Obama, or campaigns in such a lukewarm way, perhaps even "slipping up" and saying negative things about him, that Obama's supporters and the party may not give her another chance.)
So that's my idea. Choose a more traditional vice presidential running mate now, one who would be willing to step aside in four years, and promise Clinton the nomination in four years if she works vigorously for an Obama campaign in 2008, and helps him enact his agenda once he is in the White House.
