I've been checking out the liberal blogs this morning and am not finding much consensus on the effect of last night's Democratic debate. It's almost as if everyone is so shocked by what they saw on television that they are paralyzed and can't decide what the out-in-the-open hostility between Clinton and Obama means. I'm not sure I do either, but here are some thoughts.
My initial reaction was to cringe as they began going after each other. It brought back memories of the twenty-five years of marriage counseling I did, and the frustration I would feel each time husband and wife did a tit for tat with each other. No one ever wins in such encounters and I don't think anyone won last night either.
I found myself wanting to put words in Barack Obama's mouth. I wanted him to say after about the third attack from Hillary: "You know, we may have differences with each other, and we may be engaged in a highly competitive contest for the most important job in the world, but the reality is we are much more similar in our policies than we are different. We can all be proud of the fact that regardless of what we believed in 2003, today we all condemn the war in Iraq. None of the Republican front runners can say that. We can all be proud of the fact that we are discussing health care reform, and ending poverty, and continuing the fight for equality, when Republicans don't even discuss these issues with any seriousness. Yes, sometimes in the heat of the contest we lash out at each other, and I wish that didn't have to be. But the truth is that any one of us would be a far better president than any of our opponents. And I don't want our differences on this stage to mask that fact."
He didn't say that, although Hillary said something sort of close to that a little later in the debate, not because she was being generous but because I think she realized she was beginning to sound like a shrew. That's the danger for Hillary. In trying to look strong and unflappable, she runs the risk of appearing shrewish. The danger for Barack is that he might alienate democrats who are still loyal devotees of Bill and Hillary.
I think the most significant thing Barack said last night in terms of the dynamics of the contest is that sometimes he doesn't know whether he is running against Bill or Hillary. I think that's true. I don't think the country really knows who they are voting for. Would Hillary really be the president, or would Bill have a third term? If she becomes president, at least in name, would he be at cabinet meetings? If she is attacked in the press, will we see Bill always jumping in to rescue her?
I would love to see a woman president because I think a woman could run this country. I'm not so sure, though, that Hillary is the one I want to see.
And here's the problem America faces now. When Bill Clinton was elected president, the people were voting for intelligence and competence. There was real concern that George H.W. Bush was incompetent, at least when it came to managing the economy. Bill Clinton was a policy wonk, and charismatic to boot. He both instilled confidence and inspired. The electorate was aware of his playboy reputation, but ignored it and opted for a competent leader who made them feel good. Then, Bill Clinton let the country down. His playboy side emerged and he demoralized enough people that they voted in the next election for an incompetent, alcoholic, failed businessman who seemed harmless. (Yes, I know Al Gore really won the popular vote, but the election shouldn't have been close. Had Clinton not screwed up, he could have helped Gore campaign and it would have been no contest. At least the election would never have ended up in the Supreme Court where it was stolen.)
So now the electorate knows it can't go with incompetence. The country is in such terrible shape on so many fronts today because they chose the worst president in history, that it wants to go with competence. However, in this election, the Democrats are trying to decide between what they see as competence but no inspiration, and inspiration but uncertain competence. Hillary is surely competent, but lacks any kind of charisma and ability to inspire. Barack is all about inspiration, but lacking her years of experience, leaves some wondering if he has the same level of competence.
So as people begin to believe Barack is competent, Hillary has to do two things. She has to rely on Bill's charisma and popularity to counterbalance her stiff schoolmarm personality, and she has to attack Barack's competence. Barack, on the other hand, has to fight a war on these two fronts. He has to compete directly with Bill on the charisma issue, and he has to defend himself against the Clinton attack on his competence.
I think he did a fairly good job last night, though it was uncomforable to watch. I don't think anyone knows how this will all shake out, but I will add one personal note. Watching the debate last night did not endear me to Hillary. Since I am a long time admirer of the Clintons, I can only imagine how it looked to those who dislike the Clintons.
But people see what they want to see. And the Clintons will probably pull off a victory for the nomination. I don't think that's good for the democrats or the country, because I fear it will propel McCain right into the White House, and as I said here, that would be a disaster.
Now I'm going to go watch CNN and see how much I'm losing in my 401K.
