Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Hillary Postmortem?


I feel bad for Hillary.

I have said before I think she could be a very capable president, although the viciousness of the wingnuts on the right could very well cripple a Hillary Clinton presidency, as they did the presidency of her husband.

But what's happening to Hillary is what has happened to a great many presidential candidates before her. No matter how good they are, no matter how much potential to be a competent president, they bump up against a force or forces they had not anticipated, and are passed over.

Joe Biden and Chris Dodd have already experienced it, as did Al Gore, Howard Dean, John Kerry, Hubert Humphrey, and many others.

Each of these men came up against forces they had not anticipated that denied them the presidency.

What Hillary has come up against is not just Barack Obama, although that is her most obvious obstacle to achieving the nomination. She surely did not anticipate a charismatic, young, inexperienced candidate edging her out, nor did she see the power and size of the youth vote, nor did she assess the mood of the electorate correctly, as did her young rival.

No, Hillary thought she had the winning formula. Prior to the campaign season she had enlisted the support of many corporations and most of the power elite in the party and probably never imagined that it wouldn't be enough. She had reached out to women, who outnumber men in the electorate, and thought they would support her en masse. Now many of them are supporting Obama.

Hillary has also come up against the media, who dislike her because she is a Clinton, and the pundits who criticize her no matter what she does. Some dislike her personally, but most are simply baffled about how to treat a female candidate. Their template for a candidate is a male, so they flip flop all over the place in judging her suitability.

First she is too tough, then she cries and is too weak. First she is too serious, not human enough, then she laughs out loud and is characterized as a cackling witch. First her experience is a plus, then it is just a reminder of the past, which the pundits don't like unless, of course, the past comes in the form of John McCain. With coverage like this, Hillary simply couldn't win.

Hillary has not gotten a fair shake as a candidate, but that's the way the game is played. Gore and Dean didn't get a fair shake either.

It's probably too soon to write her off even before the votes are counted in New Hampshire, but the Obama ship seems to have left the space station at warp speed and, barring some unforeseen catastrophe, there seems to be no stopping it.

Hillary will, I believe, be like Moses or Martin Luther King, Jr., someone who paves the way but does not get to the Promised Land. For that, at least, she has made history and should be thanked. In the future, it will be easier for a female candidate to be taken seriously enough to win. Let's just hope it's not a Republican woman.