Over on the Republican side, it's increasingly looking like John McCain will be the nominee. With Thompson out, Giuliani tanking and Huckabee laying off staff because of lack of funds, the only one to stop McCain appears to be the self-financed Romney, and we will have to wait and see if he can do the job.
Some are speculating that if McCain is the nominee, he will choose Huckabee as a running mate. I would be quite surprised by that in that Huckabee has views that turn off a great deal of the electorate, in spite of his appeal to the evangelical Christian base of the party. I think a better running mate would be Thompson, who appeals to evangelicals as well as to mainstream conservatives. We could call it the "geezer ticket."
Right now, in spite of an anticipated Obama win in South Carolina, Hillary Clinton looks positioned to win the Democratic nomination. She is ahead in California and New York, the two biggest Super Tuesday prizes, so unless Obama can win most of the other states, she is going to be way ahead in the delegate count. It may not put her over the top, but it could get her close.
I've been wondering for a few weeks now, ever since she won the New Hampshire primary, why Hillary appeals to so many more Democratic voters than does Obama. The media has portrayed it as a matter of her greater experience, or the popularity of her husband, or her appeal to women and Hispanics, vs. Obama's appeal to African Americans. But those explanations don't entirely satisfy me. I suspect there is a more emotional factor here that is hard to quantify.
Obama's entire campaign is about bringing the country together. Since polls have shown for years that the voters think America is too divided, and that they are furious with Washington politicians for being unable or unwilling to work together, you would think Obama's appeal would be greater than Hillary's appeal, which is all about standing up to the other party and pushing her reforms through Congress.
One explanation for why this appeal to unity isn't as effective as one might think is that Democratic voters, as opposed to Independents, are much more invested in party loyalty and party politics. And with what they've had to endure over the past seven years, they simply aren't ready to play nice with Republicans.
And who can blame them? Republicans don't play fair – ever. They don't just run negative campaigns; they run hostile, disgusting, and dishonest campaigns. So the more Hillary stands up for herself against Obama, even if she is stretching the truth, which she and her husband both do, the more the base likes her.
Republicans also don't play fair in governing. The six years of Republican control of Congress, personified by people like Tom DeLay, was an exercise in completely shutting out Democratic voices, changing the rules in order to ram things through, and putting Democrats in terrible damned if you do, damned if you don't voting positions. Even now, with a Democratic majority in Congress, Republicans know how to stymie the leaders and prevent them from passing their favored legislation. They don't want to govern in collaboration with Democrats; they want to destroy Democrats. So a majority of Democratic voters don't really want a president who can work with Republicans, they want a president who will kick their butts. And they think Hillary, with Bill close at hand, will do that.
Unity is a nice thing. Just as finding a way to repair a conflict ridden marriage is a good thing. But unless both spouses are willing to put down the hatchets and think of the good of the children, as well as the needs of each other, it won't work. Democrats feel more like battered spouses than partners of a spouse who has good intentions but just has forgotten how to get along. They're tired of being suckers, tired of hearing Republicans say they want to work together and then refuse to do so. Democrats are tired of playing Charlie Brown to the Republican Lucy holding the football.
After seven long years of a Republican president who has broken every rule of civility and unified governance, and made the country worse off in every single category than it was during all the years of the Clinton administration, the Democrats have had it. They aren't ready for a reconciliation. Maybe they will be in four years, or maybe in eight, or maybe never. A lot depends on how the Republicans act.
But it is increasingly looking like Barack Obama's message is premature. And like so many of my fellow Democrats who like Obama, who suspect he will appeal to more voters than Hillary in the general election, and who think he just might have the right skills to pull the country together, I understand that many of my fellow Democrats just aren't there yet. On the one hand, they want less hostility in the country, but on the other, they despise what the Republicans have done to this country, and fear what they will try to do in the general election. Unlike Charlie Brown, they have stopped believing Lucy, stopped seeing her as a trustworthy partner. And in order to have unity, you must begin to take a chance and trust the other side. The simple reality is that after the stolen 2000 election, the stubbornness of the president, the dishonesty and secrecy of the White House, and the arrogant one-party rule in Congress, Democrats no longer trust Republicans.
I am still voting for Obama, because I don't want to give in to my desire for pay back and revenge, and because I think you can be a unifier and still handle the opposition party. Franklin Roosevelt did it and forged a consensus that lasted for decades. I'm not one of those Democrats, however, who says she won't vote for Clinton in the general election, and would rather stay home or support a third party candidate. There is too much at stake to give another Republican a chance to further destroy the economy and the middle class, as Republicans always do.
I may think Hillary Clinton is shrill and unfair, and I may not like the idea of a Clinton dynasty, but if she's the one who can put the Republicans out of business for four or eight years, and if she wins the nomination, then I'm willing to get behind her and hope that in eight years, the country will be ready for a unifier like Obama.
