The candidates and most of the media are already off to New Hampshire, eager to see whether Obama and Huckabee can repeat their Iowa victories.
I'm still enjoying Obama's Iowa win and comparing it to that of Huckabee.
It has already been reported that Obama's win was largely because of the huge turnout of young voters and first time caucus-goers, many of them independents, while Huckabee's was due to the large turnout of staunch republican evangelicals.
Obama's formula could easily be repeated in New Hampshire, while Huckabee's cannot. There just aren't that many evangelicals in New Hampshire where McCain seems to be quite popular.
Huckabee's victory was all about the evangelical wing of the republican party, which makes sense as Huckabee is a Baptist minister. That identity was clear in his acceptance speech last night. Huckabee sounded like he was giving a feel-good sermon to rural Americans. He sounded loving and folksy, careful not to slander anyone, and didn't mention much in the line of policy positions, an area in which he is very weak.
I can see how Huckabee would appeal to a certain segment of the population, those who vote for a candidate only on the basis of his credentials as one of them: i.e. a Christian. He seems eminently likeable, though I simply don't trust a word he says. His news conference to announce he was not going to air a negative ad, just before he showed the already produced negative ad to reporters, said it all to me. He is a complete hypocrite, much better at being a sleazy politician than a good Christian. But then these folks were fooled in the last two elections by another self-professed "Christian" weren't they?
Obama, on the other hand, proved he and his campaign have the stuff to organize a huge turnout and hone a winning message. And Obama himself has the ability to inspire. While Huckabee's victory speech was feel-good and folksy, Obama's was inspiring and elegant. Huckabee sounded like he was running for mayor of Mayberry, Obama sounded like a president rehearsing his Inaugural speech.
Before Iowa, I feared Hillary's machine would roll over Edwards and Obama. It still could. But now I think Obama is a phenomenon that cannot be denied. He reminds me so much of another young upstart politician in 1960 who beat an establishment politician, the hack Nixon, and became a beloved president. His young wife and young children, too, bring back memories of Camelot. That's not a reason to vote for him, of course, but it is a powerful image and one cannot discount the effect it could have.
Obama has charisma, brains, and courage. He stirs people because of who he is, not just what he believes in. When you hear him you hear the real thing, a man who is both comfortable with himself and comfortable in the world, partly because he has lived in so many different places. And though I cannot explain what it is, Obama has something that we see in only a few candidates for the presidency. JFK had it, as did his brother RFK. Ronald Reagan had it, as did FDR. It's a presence, a genuineness, a wisdom and energy, and an ability not just to communicate well, but to inspire. There is simply something undefinable about Obama, that rarely comes along in a presidential candidate. When a candidate has that, he is pretty much unstoppable in an election.
Huckabee doesn't have it. His victory in Iowa was not because of who he is, but because of what his religious profession is, and because of who his supporters are. It is possible that if enough Americans share his religious identity, he could win in November, but I think his quirky fundamentalist beliefs will frighten too many people, no matter how "nice" he seems. Besides, the republican establishment won't let him win because in their minds he's too "liberal." McCain will more than likely be the nominee, or perhaps Romney if McCain falters. Giuliani is toast. Ron Paul is too libertarian. And Thompson is too lazy.
If Obama can overcome the opposition from the establishment hacks in his own party who support Clinton, and the extreme progressive netroots who support Edwards, he can beat any republican.
And he is the only candidate, in my opinion, who can really heal this country from the sixteen year divide, largely caused by the radical right, and repair the rift between America and the rest of the world.
