I don't have a life.
I watched that silly "Faith Forum" with Orange County, California mega-millionaire pastor-in-the-Hawaiian-shirt Rick Warren having a "conversation" first with Barack Obama (the order the result of a coin flip) and then with John McCain (who was supposedly in isolation so he couldn't cheat by hearing Obama's responses.)
I got so angry seeing the McCain "performance" I stopped watching for a while and went online. The comments on the left wing blogs were coming fast and furious: McCain must have been given the questions ahead of time; He seemed to be giving answers to questions that hadn't been asked (once he even said "can we get back to the Supreme Court question" when Warren hadn't yet asked it); McCain did better than anyone expected him to; Obama was professorial and humble and ohmigod he's doomed because he got polite applause, while the audience gave one continuous ovation to McCain.
Then I got disgusted, watched an episode of Battlestar Gallactica to get my mind on something else, went to bed and had a dream (excuse me – nightmare) that McCain won the election.
Now with the sun up, my thoughts are a little clearer about what actually happened last night, and for those who have a life and were doing something much more enjoyable, here is what happened along with my analysis.
What Happened: Obama
Obama was humble and thoughtful. He gave honest and somewhat detailed answers to the questions. He spoke eloquently of his faith and what it meant, explained why he was for civil unions but against gay marriage, why he was pro-choice, on whom he would raise taxes, how he felt about the Iraq War and energy and poverty and why he would call on Americans to sacrifice in order to solve the energy crisis. He made no gaffes, gave the McCain camp no sound bites to use against him.
What happened: McCain
McCain seemed to be on amphetamines, answering with great animation and seemingly anticipating the questions before they were asked. No matter what questions Warren asked (which were supposed to be the same for both candidates, but actually were a bit different) McCain was determined to give his stump speech, complete with the usual sound bites: My friends, I was a POW, drill here, drill now, I was a POW, my friends, no taxes, pro-life administration, I was a POW, get rid of all liberal judges, war, war, war, my friends, freedom, freedom, freedom, Georgia the first Christian nation, I was a POW, country first!
Analysis: There are four ways of looking at what happened last night. First, there is the effect of the setting, including the moderator and the audience. Next, there is the drama. Third, there is the content or message. And fourth, there is the potential effect on the race.
The way I see it, the moderator and audience were tailor made for McCain and Republicans. Since nearly three fourths of all evangelicals are Republicans and planning to vote for McCain anyway, they were always going to be far more receptive to him and his message. This was a church in a wealthy part of Orange County, which is a Republican stronghold. Unlike most debates, where members of the audience are generally divided equally between Democrats and Republicans, this audience was largely made up of Republicans. Rick Warren claimed to be impartial, but it was obvious he wasn't going to insist McCain answer the same questions Obama did. He let McCain basically take over and decide which questions he would answer and which he would simply bypass to go off on a right wing rant. Obama stuck to the format – a conversation – while McCain turned it into his preferred town hall format. (This is why pastors do not make good moderators for political events.) The fact that McCain got much more applause than Obama does not really say anything about the quality of each candidate. It says much more about the format, the moderator and the audience, although McCain is obviously a good performer who really feeds on the applause and adulation of the audience. Had Rick Warren instructed his audience to hold their applause until the end, it would have been interesting to see how the candidates' performances held up, and how they were viewed by pundits and the television audience.
Which brings us to the second aspect of the forum: the performance or drama. Obama stuck to his usual cool and calm "no drama Obama" demeanor. He was thoughtful, his responses carefully delivered. He actually participated in a "conversation" with a friend, allowing the audience to eavesdrop on that conversation. He was comfortable talking about his faith and personal aspects of his life, and did not use the conversation as a chance to campaign vigorously on issues, but merely to explain his thinking. McCain, on the other hand, came prepared to make the evening another town hall meeting. He answered some uncomfortable questions ("What is your biggest moral failing?") with brief incomplete sentences ("the failure of my first marriage") and moved quickly to more friendly territory. He was not comfortable talking about faith and the only aspect of his personal life he was willing to discuss ad nauseam was his time as a POW. He addressed the audience directly and treated Warren not as a conversation partner but simply as a moderator of a large town hall meeting. The cable pundits liked this about McCain and largely on this aspect of the debate, scored the evening a win for McCain.
However, the messages of the evening will be dissected over the next few days and the messages were very different. Obama did outline his preferred progressive approach but also indicated he would listen to all viewpoints before making decisions. McCain, on the other hand, presented the typical Republican black and white perspective and did not indicate there would be any room for compromise in his administration. One telling difference: when asked if they believed evil existed and what should be done about it, both said yes it did exist but McCain said it must be defeated (a la Bush) while Obama said it must be confronted, but that only God could defeat evil. McCain's "evil" was clearly limited to terrorism and Russia, while Obama included genocide in Darfur, racism, sexism and many other evils. In addition to the question about evil, in which McCain showed a very narrow view, there were many other sound bites McCain offered up for future Obama commercials. One that really stuck out was the statement that he considered the beginning of the wealthy class to be around $5 million a year. McCain may have gotten more applause and seemed more tough and determined, but he said many things that will come back to haunt him, not with the evangelicals in the room, but with independents and moderates who may not have known he is adamantly pro-life, or thinks many teachers should be fired, or is ready to take us into another war of his choosing. Rest assured, Obama's camp will be fact checking many of his blatantly false statements and you will be seeing responses on the air.
Finally, what effect will all of this have on the race? Hard to say. We still have the conventions and the debates and millions of commercials to endure. I think McCain probably shored up the evangelical base and Obama did what he needed to do: convince the country he is a dedicated Christian and not the Muslim viral emails try to make him. Most important, though, is that he and his campaign just got a sneak peak at what McCain will do at the debates. First, McCain's campaign will lower expectations, saying he won't do as well as Obama. It will be important for the Obama campaign to take the appraisal of this faith forum and use it to lower expectations for him. Then, McCain will take the format and make it into a town hall, rolling over the moderator and trying to take over. Only with a good moderator, who doesn't let him get away with this, will the debate be fair. Third, he will do a lot of "my friends" and speak directly to the audience. Obama needs to learn to do more of this. Fourth, McCain will try to get away with lies and distortions which Obama must call him on. Obama must really do his homework and know McCain's flip flops and lies inside and out. He also needs to present more concise answers and sound bites that the audience can easily repeat.
As for the accusation that McCain must have had the questions ahead of time, or that he was allowed to watch Obama's segment, I believe the answer is yes to both. So the other thing Obama will have to do is take into account the possibility that McCain, like Bush, will cheat if he can. With the networks running the debates, though, instead of a private institution favorable to Republicans, and with both candidates on stage at the same time, it is likely this will be more difficult. Come to think of it, why didn't Warren have them both on stage at the same time? Was it a set up to have Obama go first and let McCain watch?
One thing we know about Obama. He is quick learner. Even if you consider this forum to be a loss for Obama (which I don't think it was) he will learn from it, and the next encounter the two candidates have will be very different.
